If she loses in South Carolina, Nikki Haley is toast
Ok, she's probably already toast; but a home state loss is the nail in the coffin
Note: This is an extended version of an article I have coming out later today for The Conversation, which you should really subscribe to! In the meantime, enjoy the extra chart and rather sassier language of this version.
Former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has yet to win a Republican presidential primary contest, but has vowed to stay in the race for the foreseeable future. Haley seems to be counting on support from her home state of South Carolina —which is being held this Saturday — to put her in a more competitive position against Donald Trump, who has won every primary so far, and is the clear frontrunner for the nomination.
Political science gives Haley a good reason to bank on doing well in South Carolina, for reasons I wrote about here last October:
For one thing, a candidate has naturally higher name recognition in their home state after having built a career and reputation there. Voters have gotten to know them and their record of achievement, and the candidate knows the culture of the state and its political pressure points.
Shared ties in a state are also a meaningful identity that strengthens connections with voters based on trust. Being an out-of-towner, on the other hand, can make you seem out-of-touch. Just ask Dr. Oz, whose truly legendary gaffes during his 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania highlighted his deep roots in neighboring New Jersey.
These conditions can add up to a big electoral advantage that Haley might be counting on in South Carolina.
The data say Haley is in trouble
I collected election results for both parties’ presidential primaries for each election year from 1992 to 2020. I then compared the percentage of the vote they received in their home state’s primary with the average they received in other states’ primaries held slightly before or on the same day as their home state.
First, every candidate in this time period who ended up winning the nomination performed at least as well, if not better in their home state’s primary than in other comparable primaries. Even Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who were historically unpopular candidates in 2016, followed this trend. The same is true for nearly all of the major presidential primary candidates during this time.
The data also tell us that, in the history of the modern presidential primary, since 1972, there has not been a single eventual nominee from either party who did not win their home state.1 In other words, Haley winning the nomination after losing her home state would be literally unprecedented.
Of course, Haley might have other outcomes in mind. Even if she remains a consistent second-place finisher in the primaries, she could wait in the wings for the nomination if Trump’s legal difficulties prevent him from serving in some way.
But the evidence says that winning the nomination outright will be next to impossible for Haley without first winning the primary in her home state.
You can see in the chart that John McCain actually only got 47% of the vote in his home state of Arizona in 2008, but there were enough other candidates (Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and others) that this was still a plurality (that is, more than anyone else), and enough to win the state.